当前位置: 首页 > 首席经济学家 > 毛振华:宏观调控需兼顾中长期目标

毛振华:宏观调控需兼顾中长期目标

来源:中诚信     发布时间:2019-06-25     浏览量:184

6月25日,由中诚信国际信用评级有限责任与中国诚信(亚太)信用评级有限共同举办的以“中国信用:经济变革与信用分化”为主题的2019年中信用展望研讨会在香港举行。中诚信集团创始人、董事长,中诚信国际首席经济学家毛振华教授在会上发表了题为《宏观调控需兼顾中长期目标》的主旨演讲,提出虽然宏观调控以熨平短期波动为目标,但政策调整过于关注短期目标会干扰到中长期目标的实现,建议短期宏观调控仍需加大对中长期目标的关注。

on june 25th, the 2019 china credit outlook forum, cohosted by china chengxin international credit rating co., ltd. (abbreviated as “ccxi”)and china chengxin (asia pacific) credit rating co., ltd. (abbreviated as“ccxap”) was held in hong kong. the theme of the forum is “china credit market:economic reform and credit differentiation”. dr. mao zhenhua, founder and chairman of china chengxin group and the chief economist of ccxi, delivered a keynote speech-- “macro-economic control should take into account the medium-/long-term economic development goals”. he proposed that although to smooth short-termeconomic fluctuations is the objective of macro-economic control, nevertheless,short-term objectives may weigh on medium-/long-term economic development andits sustainability. he suggests that china’s macro-economic control shouldre-analyze the situations and rebalance its priorities to take into account the medium-/long-term economic development goals.

毛振华指出,2016年以来我国宏观政策经历了多次调整,大致可以分为三个阶段:2016年下半年至2017年,宏观调控以防风险为重心,2018年随着中国经济下行压力加大和中美贸易冲突加剧政策再度“变中求稳”,对稳增长的关注加大,2019年宏观政策在延续稳增长基调同时也出现微调,4月政治局会议重提结构性去杠杆。

mao pointed out that, since 2016, china’s macroeconomic policies went through multiple rounds of adjustments, which can be roughly divided into three stages: from the second half of 2016 to 2017, the focus of macro-economic control was “risk preventions”; in 2018, as downward pressure increases on china’s economy, the intensified sino-u.s. trade tensions shifted the priority of china’s macro-economic control polices to “stable growth”; in 2019, certain fine tunings appeared, departing from the lasting theme of “steady growth”, and in april, the meeting of the political bureau brought up “structural de-leveraging” again.

毛振华分析,2016年下半年至2017年以防风险、去杠杆为重心的宏观调控政策带动杠杆率增长边际放缓,宏观风险有所缓释,但去杠杆政策也带来了一些负面影响:首先,去杠杆节奏过快、力度过大,监管踩踏导致金融市场波动加大;其次,去杠杆基调下信用明显收缩,企业信用风险尤其是民营企业信用风险加速暴露;再次,去杠杆、严监管也在一定程度上加剧了经济下行压力。

mao analyzed that, from the second half of 2016 to2017, the macro-regulations, with the focus on risk prevention and de-leveraging, led to a marginal slowdown in leverage growth, and,consequently, in macro risks. however, de-leveraging policies have downsides.firstly, de-leveraging came too fast and too strong. overlapping supervision measures have led to increasing volatility in the financial market. secondly,credit shrunk significantly, while corporate, especially private enterprise,credit risk exposed at an accelerated speed. thirdly, de-leveraging and tightening regulation increased downward pressure on the economy, to a certain extent.

毛振华同时认为,2018年以来政策对稳增长的关注加大,带动经济有所回稳,但稳增长政策依然存在一些负面作用:一方面,从目前来看“稳增长”依旧没有摆脱依靠基建和房地产的窠臼,长远来看不利于中国经济的结构转型与调整;另一方面,宏观基本面的回暖在一定程度上以债务的攀升为代价。根据中诚信国际的测算,2019年一季度杠杆率增幅明显快于2016-2018年整个季度增速。其中,非金融企业部门杠杆率由降转升,居民部门、政府部门杠杆率继续攀升。

mao also pointed out that, since 2018, the policy has increased its focus on steady growth, which has stabilized the economy.however, steady growth policies also have negative effects. on the one hand,for the time being, the economy was not able to cast off the old formula of“infrastructure + real estate” in its struggle to maintain “steady growth”; in the long-run, they are an opposite force for china’s structural adjustments. onthe other hand, the recovery of the economy’s fundamentals was partly at the expense of rising debt. according to ccxi research, the increase in leverage inthe first quarter of 2019 is significantly faster than that during 2016-2018.especially, the leverage ratio of non-financial corporate sectors start to riserather than drop in before, while the leverage ratio of the residential sectorand government departments continued on their path upward.

毛振华提出,虽然宏观经济政策被理解为以“熨平短期经济波动”为主要任务,但短期政策调整也必须考虑长期目标,需要在判断当时所处的经济增长阶段和发展周期的前提下来选择合适的短期政策。

mao believed that although to “smooth short-term economic fluctuations” is a major task for macro-economic control, nevertheless,short-term policy adjustments should take into account medium-/long-termobjectives. he suggested that a political decision should be made under aproper understanding of the country’s current phase of economic growth, and current phase in the economic cycles.

在外有贸易战、内有结构性风险的背景下,宏观政策一方面需要理性应对中美冲突,为中国经济长远健康发展创造较为稳定的外部环境,但更为重要的是,宏观政策要保持中长期稳定,国内宏观调控政策要更着眼长远,兼顾中国经济的长远健康发展的长期目标,减少短期政策调整频率,注重系统性风险的防范,坚定不移地采取措施逐步化解经济运行中的结构性风险。在具体政策上,要提高政策导向和政策工具的可预期性,政府通过保持政策的连续性对市场的各个部门提供更多的稳定政策支持,减少由于个别事件所引起的宏观经济政策上的大幅调整。从当前来看,较为可行的政策选择是稳健或者稳健偏紧的货币政策与更加积极的财政政策的组合。

against the background of external trade tensions and internal structural risks, macro policies need to rationally deal with sino-u.s.conflicts and create a relatively stable external environment for the long-termsound development of china's economy. priority of macro-regulation should be maintaining long-term economic stability and growth. domestic macro-economic control should take a wider and longer perspective, by taking into account medium-/long-term goals, while reducing the frequency of short-term policy adjustments. at the same time, policymakers should be vigilant against systematic risks in the economy, and firmly adapt measures to resolve them systematically. to be more specific, government shall take the following measures: improving the predictability of policy orientation and policy tools; providing more stable policy to support various sectors by maintaining the predictability and continuity of policies;limiting the usage of macro-regulation adjustments in dealing with separate events; and currently, a combination of a stable (toward tight) monetary policy plus a more active fiscal policy is preferable in terms of macroeconomic policy options.